By Leon Brunzel
On Friday 31 January 2025, something historically unprecedented happened in the German
federal parliament, the Bundestag. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of
former chancellor Angela Merkel, deliberately attempted for the first time to achieve a
legislative majority together with the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany
(AfD). How did this happen and does Russia play a role in the Alternative’s growing
support?
In the last 10 years the European Union and Germany as its biggest member have been
experiencing numerous social, economic and political events of turmoil, such as the refugee crisis since 2015, the Covid-19 pandemic or the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. These events provided right- and left-wing populists with numerous opportunities to capitalise.
Founded in 2013, the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland – Alternative for Germany) quickly established itself as the new Eurosceptic party and as an integral part of the political debate. It filled the political gap left by the CDU under Angela Merkel, but in recent years the AfD has moved significantly further to the right.
The AfD’s first big success of being elected into several state parliaments (2014-2016) and
finally the Bundestag in 2017 were above all due to the migration crisis starting in 2015.
From 2020-2022, the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions on civil rights such as the right to demonstrate provided further fertile ground for right-wing populism. And last but not least the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia since the 24 th of 2022, which triggered various fears and other emotions among the German population.
The AfD has always criticised Germany's firm place as part of the West, but its pro-Russian
orientation has become even clearer since the start of the war against Ukraine. There are
numerous examples which show that. For instance, several AfD members of the Bavarian parliament travelled to Russia in March 2024 acting as ‘election observers’ for the presidential election. This happened while no legitimate observers like the OSCE were invited to the orchestrated elections. While being in Russia the MPs willingly took part in interviews on the Russian propaganda channel Russia Today (RT), in which they exuberantly reproduced Kremlin propaganda narratives.
Even in everyday parliamentary life in Berlin, AfD-MPs repeatedly make statements that echo Russian narratives one-to-one. In speeches in the Bundestag, AfD politician Alexander Bystron said, for example, that Nato had shifted to the border with Russia. ‘What is the price for this? Young men are dying,’ Bystron said, blaming Nato for the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Another concerning example was the broadcasted statement made by Tino Chrupalla, leader of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, already after the massacre of Ukrainian civilians by Russian soldiers in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha became known. According to Chrupalla, Putin is ‘not a war criminal’.
Knowing about the AfDs political orientation and agenda it would lay in Russia’s natural
interest to support a further rise of the AfD. The Kremlin already has a reputation for
supporting political movements, which could be helpful for Russia, using hybrid warfare and disinformation for it. This brings up the question if Russia is also actively supporting the AfD. Especially since Germany’s support of Ukraine, being the second biggest military and financial donor, further increased Russia’s geopolitical interest in Berlin.
According to research published in September 2024 by German public broadcasters NDR and WDR in cooperation with the newspaper ‘Süddeutsche Zeitung’, Russian disinformation
campaigns in Germany are controlled directly by the Kremlin. This was proven by internal
documents from a Moscow-based company called Social Design Agency (SDA). The documents indicate that one of the goals is to strengthen the AfD in polls. The head of
the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (internal secret service), Thomas
Haldenwang, pointed out the dangers of these campaigns to the media involved. Russia is
acting ‘pragmatically and thematically flexible in order to make the best possible use of
divisive potential and discourse within society in Germany’, NDR, WDR and ‘SZ’ quoted
Haldenwang. The head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution emphasised that
his agency was ‘working intensively to identify the destructive actors and prevent them from
destabilising our democracy’.
The research shows that the Kremlin considers Germany to be a favourite target for spreading disinformation. False information in Germany is intended to ‘increase fear of the future’ and strengthen right-wing parties. After a quoted Russian document, the AfD is expected to achieve an approval rating of 20 per cent. It is currently not far off this figure and stands at 18% in the latest poll by the Forsa Institute. One of the main narratives of the Russian campaigns is the claim that German support for Ukraine is to blame for Germany’s ‘deepest economic and social crisis in recent history’. The aim is to create the impression that Germany is on the brink of economic collapse.
According to the research findings, SDA is spreading narratives around the clock on social networks that are intended to benefit the Russian state leadership. This was apparently done in close coordination with Vladimir Putin's presidential administration, it was said. The media involved refer to the analysis of internal presentations, tables, lists, graphics and
protocols from SDA, which were leaked to them by an anonymous source. In addition to
pro-Russian comments on Facebook, X, Telegram or Instagram, SDA primarily disseminates
memes (images or texts of a humorous or sarcastic nature) and caricatures.
We can conclude that Russia is actively spreading fake news and disinformation to support the rise of the AfD. Which must be seen in the bigger frame of removing Germany from the
Western alliance and strengthen Moscow's word in Berlin. It is difficult to assess the actual influence of the Kreml’s campaigns onto the citizen's voting decision, but it the dangers which lay in a warmongering authoritarian regime trying to manipulate voters are obvious and must be monitored with the highest attention. But it is at least worrying that the AfD got 20% of the vote. Which corresponds exactly to the Kremlin's proclaimed goal. This means that the nation's defence capabilities against hybrid warfare and disinformation should be strengthened as well as holding Russia accountable for its actions. Apart from any political orientation, the question arises as to whether German sovereignty is jeopardised by the political influence of a party openly supported by Russia.
About the author: Leon Brunzel is a student of Interdisciplinary Russian Studies at the University of Potsdam. His academic focus lies in politics, administration, and economics, with a particular interest in Eastern Europe and International Relations. He has gained practical experience through roles in the German Bundestag (federal parliament) and the Federal Foreign Office, where he worked on research, as well as organisational and administrative tasks. Passionate about political analysis and the European Integration of Eastern Europe, enjoys exploring complex geopolitical issues and their real-world implications.
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